Nate correctly predicted the outcome of the 2008 presidential election in 49 out of 50 states, as well as DC — missing only Indiana.
With his model, he even correctly predicted the winners of every US Senate race. Nate called the 2012 presidential election months before it was ever certain, predicting that President Obama had 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the 538 electoral votes.
“I can’t believe it’s a Sunday when I actually go and do nothing and not feel guilty about it,” he says as a waiter takes his order for a Michelle, a cocktail involving jalapeño-infused tequila, beer, lime, and tomato juice (Silver liked it so much, he had two of them).
He is also predicting that Obama will receive 50.4 percent of the popular vote to Romney's 48.5 percent."Mr. That leaves five states, and 61 electoral votes, unaccounted for – but Mr.
Obama's lead in the Electoral College is modest, but also quite consistent across the different methods," wrote Silver in his first post on Wednesday. Obama leading make up 271 electoral votes – one more than the president needs to clinch victory. Obama would not need them if he prevails in the states where he is leading in the polls."Some pundits are coming to Silver's defense, including Ezra Klein of The Washington Post.
But it's also not a 'toss-up': The Giants are favored.
It's the same principle here: Obama is ahead in the polling averages in states like Ohio that would suffice for him to win the Electoral College. Despite the criticisms Silver is receiving – and they are mounting as the election nears – he is standing by his latest projections (updated at noon on 10/31) that Obama will win 299 electoral votes to Romney's 239.
, the much-praised documentary about Japanese sushi legend Jiro Ono.